@article {1018,
	title = {Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study},
	journal = {PloS one},
	volume = {12},
	number = {12},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {e0189096},
	abstract = {Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don{\textquoteright}t. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.},
	author = {Giulio Rossetti and Letizia Milli and Fosca Giannotti and Dino Pedreschi}
}
