01579nas a2200157   4500008004100000245007400041210006900115300001300184490000700197520103200204100002101236700001901257700002101276700002001297856010401317       2017                        eng d00aForecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study0 aForecasting success via early adoptions analysis A datadriven st  ae01890960 v123 aInnovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don’t. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.1 aRossetti, Giulio1 aMilli, Letizia1 aGiannotti, Fosca1 aPedreschi, Dino  uhttps://kdd.isti.cnr.it/publications/forecasting-success-early-adoptions-analysis-data-driven-study