<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Giulio Rossetti</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Letizia Milli</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fosca Giannotti</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dino Pedreschi</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">PloS one</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2017</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12</style></number><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">e0189096</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don’t. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.</style></abstract></record></records></xml>